US July Jobs Report Preview: 80K Expected, ADP Shows Weaker Hiring

The July US nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight at 20:30, and markets are looking for a rebound in hiring. The median expectation is 80,000 new jobs, above June's 57,000 increase, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% on the year and 0.3% on the month. ADP private payrolls, a closely watched signal, rose just 44,000 this week, pointing to a softer picture. A Reuters poll puts the consensus at 80,000, and a separate Dow Jones Newswires and Wall Street Journal survey shows an average estimate of 83,000. Goldman Sachs economists caution that July readings often miss market expectations, and prior months' job growth has been subject to sizable revisions. Behind the stable jobless rate, labor force participation has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. The latest private-sector employment data suggests companies are less eager to hire. Labor market resilience now comes more from supply and demand cooling together than from stronger recruitment.